For decades, the corporate world operated like a predictable pyramid, and as a career advisor at a Singapore university, I had front-row seats to this reliable system. Fresh graduates entered at the wide base through high-paying graduate programmes, companies invested in training them, and career progression meant climbing steadily upward. I watched thousands of students follow this well-worn path, secure in the knowledge that their degrees would open doors to entry-level positions where they could learn and grow.
Organisations understood that hiring fresh talent meant making a long-term investment in training and development, and they had both the resources and patience to nurture raw potential into seasoned expertise. The pyramid structure was reassuring in its predictability. It starts at the bottom, learn the ropes, and gradually ascend toward more specialised roles. This model worked because companies viewed fresh graduates as valuable assets worth developing over time.
The Diamond Shape Job Market is Emerging
That era is over. Today’s job market is transforming into something entirely different, driven by forces that have fundamentally altered how companies operate. The numbers tell a stark story: one in five MNCs now employ fewer people than they did a decade ago, and the unemployment gap between new graduates and the general population is at a 35-year high. What we’re witnessing isn’t just a temporary shift—it’s a complete restructuring of how work gets done.
The latest annual graduate employment surveys conducted by the universities and polytechnics show that fewer of their fresh graduates secured full-time employment in 2024. For fresh graduates from the universities, 79.5 per cent of them secured full-time jobs in 2024, down from 84.1 per cent in 2023. Employment outcomes for polytechnic graduates also declined, with 54.6 per cent of them in full-time permanent jobs in 2024, down from about 60 per cent in 2023. These declining employment rates reflect the diamond-shaped reality that new graduates now face.
The Forces Reshaping Work
The transformation from pyramid to diamond isn’t happening by chance. It’s being driven by powerful forces that are fundamentally changing what work looks like and who gets to do it. At the heart of this shift lies a technological revolution that’s moving faster than most organisations, educators, or job seekers anticipated. While automation has always eliminated certain types of work, what’s different now is the speed and scope of change, particularly affecting the cognitive tasks that once formed the foundation of white-collar entry-level positions.
Artificial Intelligence isn’t just changing how work gets done; it’s eliminating the work that traditionally belonged to entry-level employees. Tasks like code writing, marketing copy creation, data analysis, customer service interactions, and administrative duties are increasingly automated. The very foundation of the employment pyramid. These are the routine, learnable tasks that once provided stepping stones for new graduates, is being systematically removed from the equation.
Microsoft just announced that they saved more than $500 million in its call centres using AI, yet they are laying off 4 per cent or about 6,000, of their workforce.
Meanwhile, companies have abandoned “talent hoarding”, the practice of hiring promising graduates for future potential, in favour of operating with significantly smaller workforces. There was once an unspoken agreement between employers and new graduates: accept lower starting salaries in exchange for training, mentorship, and clear career progression paths. Entry-level positions served as learning laboratories where fresh talent could develop into seasoned professionals.
This social contract has been broken. Companies now prioritise hiring experienced workers who can immediately utilise AI tools rather than training new graduates from scratch. Training programs are being cut as “inefficient,” and career progression paths have become unclear. The old deal, where graduates accepted lower pay for professional development opportunities, has been replaced by a new reality where AI handles most entry-level tasks, leaving fewer opportunities for human beginners to gain their footing.
The Long-Term Outlook
The diamond-shaped job market isn’t a temporary adjustment. It’s the new permanent structure. Understanding what lies ahead is crucial for students, educators, and policymakers who need to adapt to this transformed landscape. The changes we’re witnessing today will only accelerate, creating a fundamentally different relationship between education, skills, and employment.
In the short term, over the next one to three years, we can expect continued entry-level position scarcity as companies maintain their preference for experienced workers. There will be a growing premium on AI-skilled workers who can leverage these tools effectively, while traditional degree-based hiring gives way to skills-based evaluation. Alternative credentialing programs and micro-certifications will gain prominence as employers seek proof of practical capabilities rather than academic achievement.
The medium-term outlook spanning three to seven years suggests more dramatic shifts in how we prepare people for work. Educational institutions will need to develop new models that focus on AI collaboration rather than competing with automation. Government intervention in workforce development will likely increase as the employment crisis deepens, potentially leading to publicly funded retraining programs. We may see the emergence of “AI apprenticeships” and new training pathways that teach people to work alongside intelligent systems rather than perform tasks that can be automated.
Looking ahead seven years and beyond, the diamond structure will likely stabilise into the new normal. Career progression models will evolve to reflect this reality, with fewer traditional ladder-climbing opportunities but potentially new forms of professional development. Society itself may need to grapple with fundamental questions about work, value creation, and how we distribute resources in an economy where human labour plays a diminished role in many sectors.
Navigating the Diamond: A Strategy for New Graduates
While the diamond-shaped job market presents unprecedented challenges, it’s not insurmountable for those willing to adapt their approach. Fresh graduates must focus on AI collaboration rather than competition—learn to work effectively alongside these tools, understand their capabilities, and develop skills in refining AI-generated work. Build portfolio-based credibility through personal projects, freelance work, and tangible demonstrations of your capabilities. Since traditional entry-level positions are scarce, consider alternative pathways like internships that convert to full-time roles, apprenticeship programs, or starting with contract and gig work to build experience and professional networks.
Network strategically and persistently, as many available positions are filled through referrals before being posted publicly. Be willing to take on roles slightly outside your preferred field, or consider smaller companies and startups that may be more flexible in their hiring requirements. The diamond-shaped job market rewards adaptability, continuous learning, and creative approaches to gaining initial work experience. While the traditional pathway from graduation to employment has been disrupted, those who understand the new reality and are willing to build experience through non-traditional routes can still establish successful careers.
